2nd Blog

In my psychology class this week we discussed the future of social media, and the continued existence of Facebook specifically. Can Facebook stand the test of time and remain an actively used site throughout the near and far future? Or will it eventually crumble and fade out like nearly every other social media site has experienced in the past? According to research conducted by Princeton University in 2014, they suggest the latter.

Princeton University made an interesting analogy between that of Facebook and an infectious disease. By comparing a growth curve from a contagious disease to social media, Princeton University researchers found that Facebook will lose 80% of its users by 2017. We can now see that they were wrong. If you are like me, you may be surprised that such a prestigious institution had a horribly incorrect conclusion from the results of their data. The question that must be begged is why?

I assert that their analogy was a poor comparison. Not for the reason of comparing an online site to a tangible disease, but for comparing it to a disease with a set antigen makeup. A quick biology refresher for those who may have forgotten the microscopic level of pathogenicity is important to mention here. To put it simply, an antigen is foreign substance that enters the body and causes an immune response. An antigen is similar to a tag or label on a bag that marks it as belonging to a certain disease. Many bacteria and some viruses have a relatively constant antigen makeup so that the cell can always recognize the foreign substance as being harmful to the body. This is how immunizations work: by exposing the body to a certain disease the lymphocytes that comprise part of the immune system will take a few days to a couple of weeks the first time around to recognize and fight off this invader. However, the next time the pathogen enters the body the cell will be able to immediately recognize it and already have the machinery in place to quickly destroy it before it can set up an infection.

Returning to the article from Princeton, they asserted that Facebook will experience a similar fall of pattern as do infectious diseases. Like spreading diseases, Facebook will experience a rapid rise in users, but then quickly die off once everyone builds up immunity to it. By building up immunity to it, the researchers are suggesting that after people have been exposed to Facebook for so long, they will eventually become desensitized to it and will no longer be captured by its content.  However, the mistake the researchers made here is that they neglected to recognize Facebook as an evolving virus. Similar to the flu, Facebook is constantly changing and evolving new ways to high jack its hosts’ minds to keep them engaged.  To elaborate more, the reason that you have to get a new flu shot every year is because the antigens, the label, for the influenza virus change constantly. This means that your lymphocytes will no longer recognize the new influenza virus because it now has a new tag. These types of diseases never truly die off because you constantly have to keep developing immunity to new antigens for the same disease. Likewise, Facebook is constantly changing its antigens through developing new updates and features for its users to engage in.

Only time will tell if Facebook is able to evolve and update frequently enough to keep up with the demands of the developing immunity of people becoming desensitized to its content. The race is on!